Introduction

In this article (originally posted in 2018), I would like to make some predictions about the next 30 years of information technology. The main sub-technology groups I consider are:

  • Parallel Computing Technology
  • Quantum Computing Technology
  • Bioelectronics Technology
  • Low Power RF Communication Technology
  • Energy Transfer and Storage Technology
  • Self-Modifying Electronics Technology

Technologies

Parallel Computing Technology
Parallel computing refers to technologies that allow a task to be carried out much faster by processing in parallel. At present, even in multi-core processors, this is not widely used. Generally, cores in multi-core systems are used for different, separate tasks. Parallel computing, however, is the execution of the same calculation in parallel across multiple cores. Besides multi-core processors, systems such as FPGAs that enable parallel computation can also be used.

Quantum Computing Technology
Quantum computing is an experimental technology that uses quantum properties to evaluate many possibilities at once. Unlike current silicon electronics, it requires very specific temperatures and special components. In recent years, various systems have been designed to indirectly use quantum properties, achieving success to varying degrees. While the idea—especially the ability to evaluate billions of possibilities simultaneously—is exciting, the technology is still very limited in level and usability.

Bioelectronics Technology
Bioelectronics is the general name for technologies that closely integrate electronics with biological entities. Measuring brain waves, monitoring pulse, stimulating nerves, artificial limbs, etc., already have commercial and experimental use. Currently integration is still superficial, but in the future closer human integration will begin. The first pioneers will likely be in disability treatment and military applications, where experimental work is already ongoing.

Low Power RF Communication Technology
The main goal is to develop communication systems that consume little power and cause minimal harm to biological entities. The biggest obstacle at low power levels is electromagnetic noise, which is very high. However, for decades we’ve managed satellite communication with low signal levels in noisy environments. With the miniaturization of such technologies and the development of low-power yet high-performance hybrid RF chips, these systems are becoming increasingly feasible.

Energy Transfer and Storage Technology
For circuits with lower power needs, large batteries are not necessarily required. Instead, environmental energy can be harvested to continuously power electronics. Over the past decade, many experimental studies have been conducted in this area. For example, sound noise can be captured with piezoelectric systems. Similarly, energy generated from walking can be harvested with special shoes. Another well-known but increasingly refined method is powering circuits with small solar panels (like those in calculators). In addition, research continues on wireless power transmission at low radiation levels (minimizing biological harm). All these approaches offer an alternative to “battery storage,” shifting to “drawing energy from the environment when needed.”

Self-Modifying Electronics Technology
The aim of this technology is to allow integrated circuits to change themselves to serve different purposes or gain new capabilities. For example, integrated circuits in mobile phones are fixed at the time of manufacture and cannot change. Although they have high computing power, their function remains the same. The goal is for integrated circuits in your devices to adapt to your immediate needs—enhancing image processing when taking a photo, boosting web rendering while browsing, or improving compression/decompression when making video calls. This would make electronics updateable and flexible, just like software.

Predictions

In IT, there has always been a kind of “sine wave” in how technologies are applied—periodic shifts between server-heavy and client/terminal-heavy computing.

  • 1970s–1980s: simple terminals + relatively powerful servers.
  • 1980s–1990s: powerful personal computers, weaker servers.
  • 1990s–2000s: rise of the Internet → lightweight PCs + powerful servers.
  • 2000s–2010s: again powerful terminals (tablets, phones), weaker servers.
  • 2010s–2020s: clearly strong servers (think of web services) + lightweight terminals.

The root of this cycle is that technological advances become economically feasible at different times on different platforms. New tech appears first on servers (less cost-sensitive), then migrates to clients when costs fall. But the emerging technologies mentioned earlier will create alternatives beyond the classic client–server model.

Expected Developments Over the Next 30 Years

  • The classic client/server architecture will fade, replaced by a server–intermediary–client architecture.
  • Servers will increasingly use quantum accelerators, GPU accelerators, and FPGA-based parallel computing machines.
  • Thus, servers will mostly be used for tasks requiring heavy computation, not for everything. For example, game graphics and physics engines will run on servers, while terminals will only handle the user interface via high-speed internet.
  • Smart communication units (“intermediaries”) will emerge between servers and clients.
  • Intermediaries will use low-power RF to communicate with clients, and high-speed links to connect to servers.
  • Services that are uneconomical to host centrally will be distributed via intermediaries. For instance, large-scale websites will be stored and delivered through distributed intermediaries rather than central servers.
  • Net Neutrality will continue, but distributed websites will be hosted securely via blockchains on intermediaries.
  • Intermediaries will handle data communication, processing, and hosting.
  • These intermediary services will be offered directly by telecom companies as subscription-based access, replacing simple “internet access” with “access to the intermediary network.”
  • Clients (devices) will become lighter, shifting most storage and computation to intermediaries and servers.
  • On the client side, thanks to low-power communication and increased bioelectronic integration, devices will become much closer to humans and begin to offer services not yet possible.
    • For example, when you want directions, a transparent map will appear right in front of your eyes.
    • When you feel hungry, you’ll be given suggestions.
    • Security apps will analyze, via servers, whether the person in front of you is lying.
  • Clients will never need charging; they’ll only be replaced when broken, as all energy will be harvested from the environment.